[W. Deranged]

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A bet on the flop from a tight passive here indicates a pair very often. I think it's more likely to be a pair we beat (TT or possibly 88)

I doubt a villain with that profile bet out the flop with overcards and a backdoor flush draw.


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Fair enough. I doubt he has eights though. Say his hands are QQ, JJ or TT 90+% of the time and AK or AQ with a spade the rest. If so, then it depends on the probability he will fold QQ (low) or JJ (almost as low) versus the probability he has AK (probably not as low). I guess the bet has value, but it is not clear to me that it has a lot. (If he'll cap with queens then the value goes up, obviously, but it is not clear that he does.)

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88 is probably not that likely, and we can basically dismiss JJ not only because it's unlikely but because it's going to be a chop anyway.

The basic point is this: which hand is villain more likely to play the way he did: QQ or TT? This line is quite consistent with the way a lot of players will play TT, but not how they'll play QQ. QQ would likely have either capped pre-flop, or three-bet or check-raised the flop.

I think AK/AQ type hands are quite unlikely because AK give more turn action and neither are that likely to lead this flop (given our opponent is quite tight-passive).