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Old 09-05-2003, 09:22 PM
elysium elysium is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 1,891
Default Re: Heads up with the Queens

hi bk
check-down the turn bk, do not bet. this is a good time to side-step a fight on his turf, and fight on your turf. and bk, in this situation, your turf is the river. if you check this down on the turn, you will gain considerable info that will confidently allow you to bet if he checks, or of course call if he bets.

the problem here bk is that your opponent has made a suspicious check-call after calling a pre-flop raise. one mitigating factor arguing against checking down the turn is the fact that he is the BB. but you describe him as solid and while betting is minimally acceptable because of his BB status, the better play is to side-step the turn, and in so doing, gain useful info that will confidently allow you to bet if he checks, and call if he bets. additionally, he may be weak and fold if you bet the turn. while you don't usually allow free-cards that can beat you, you may already be beat here or you may have him drawing thin. but if he's drawing thin, your bet won't fold him out. he knows too well that his call will close things, but he may try a semi-bluff raise if you bet. furthermore, if he winds up with middle pair, he will likely call. and if he check-raises on the river, calling that check-raise with the money you saved on the turn is a whole lot sweeter than calling a turn check-raise.

there are benefits to betting the turn. but when you compare those benefits; and winning the pot right then and there is a possible benefit, and so is charging the draws; you will see that carrying the battle to the river, rather than battling on the turn, presents less risk albeit, it may also cost you a bet that you could have picked up. but it's the risk here due to the very suspicious check-call followed by a check that makes risk avoidence the +ev move and you avoid all that risk with a simple sweet side-step on the turn. the beauty lies in how on the one hand you force your opponent to bet or check honestly on the river, and reduce your exposer to the suspicious risk possibility on the other. but your opponent does need to be good/ solid to make checking or side-stepping the turn correct.
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