[thomastem]

I hope someone can talk some sense into me cause over 49.5 seem like a nice value to me.

Pats averaged 27 pts per game last season while the Raiders gave up the same. The same offense against one of the weaker defenses I put the Pats target score at 30.

The Raiders averaged 20 Pts a game last year - Moss and a running back. Pats gave up 16 and are missing a couple of linebackers. I put a conservative target of 24.

The Pats D is over hyped from last year's playoff game against Indy. This is not a playoff game in bad weather but more like last year's opener when New England and Indy played and the over won.

Quick talk sense into me before I burn a unit!

Record 0-0-0

My first pick: Raiders @ Pats over 49.5