[stevepa]

[ QUOTE ]
Great post!

I would say it's even more -EV for the fact that the table is somewhat tight. I had to restrict the calling range to 99+ only 2 off the button to see that pushing here with less than a pair of tens is clearly wrong. No way AK/AQ is folding here.

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I'm pretty sure this is wrong but let's do some math to make sure. 2 off the button means four players behind you, who will only call with 99+, AK/AQ (the range you gave above). Against that range, you are a 2-1 underdog. So when they call, 33% of the time you double up to ~17000 (depends if a blind calls or a non-blind calls) and 66% of the time you're out. When they fold, you're up to 9400 chips. So, how often do they call? Well, there are 52 choose 2 = 1326 different combinations of hands. 99+ is 36 combinations and AK/AQ is 32 combinations. So each player folds 1258/1326 of the time. Four players, so everyone folds (1258/1326)^4 = 81% of the time.

So, your chipEV for the push is:
(.81)*(9400) + (.19)(.33)(17000) + (.19)(.67)(0)
= 8679.9

This is equivalent to +479.9 chips. Now, a wider calling range would decrease this number (unless the range is so wide that KQs is a favourite against many calling hands) but at a tight table it would seem that pushing KQs 2 off the button with 10bb is clearly the right play.

If you do the same calculation for 3 and 4 off the button, you get +330 and +174 chips respectively. Still +chipEV but getting closer.

Hopefully all this math is right...

Steve