[AliasMrJones]

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so again, which assumption is incorrect?

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Well, at this point in your ramblings, mainly that a push now will have a profound affect on your future +$EV opportunities. I think on average the effect will be marginal at best.

The only effect a push now could have is to widen opponents' calling ranges. I think we can agree that tighter opponents = more FE = more +$EV push opportunities. So, looser opponents is bad.

The problem is, a SnG is very, very short. and the push/fold part of a SnG is even shorter. I just don't think there is enough time for there to be much of an effect usually. Also, one push probably has 0 effect. It is combinations of pushes that might have an effect. Again, with the short time factor, the probabilities of having the right combination of pushes to have a significant impact is small.

Based on my experience, I think we're definitely talking about affecting less than one decision per tourney. If I had to guess, I'd probably say we might be talking about one decision per 4 tourneys on average?