Re: NL50 - overpair on flop faces big reraise
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I would fold.
Villain could easily be fast-playing a set or hit two pair out of the BB. If he had AA or KK I think he would have re-raised pre-flop. The only thing you are beating is AT, JJ or perhaps 99, but 99 and AT seem like a stretch. Although he is very loose, you can only call if you think he makes this move (after he's seen you raise UTG and raise his flop-bet) with a bluff/JJ/TPTK.
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What about the fact that Hero would only have to win the hand about 33% of the time for the call to be neutral EV?
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