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Old 09-08-2005, 01:22 PM
AliasMrJones AliasMrJones is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Denver, CO
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Default Re: ICM/SNGPT rambling thoughts(long)

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So, you've pushed from SB into BB the last two orbits. Here you are again with a marginal(+.6%) push against his current range with 100-200 blinds. If you have a workable stacksize and you feel that pushing this hand will open villian's range drastically on future hands, can you argue that the lost FE in the future higher blinds out weighs the current slightly positive situation?

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I agree this is a very interesting topic and is very difficult to quantify. It is, unfortunately, not just the last few hands either. If someone has pushed UTG on my BB the last 3 times in a row (not 3 sequential hands in a row) that also tends to widen my calling range, for me quite a bit. ;-) To make it simple, perhaps there is a way to take previous X hands actions combined with current push = some widening of future calling range. I think, for the most part, the tighter our opponents are, the better as we can steal with a wider range of hands. So wider future calling ranges probably = smaller future +$EV.

Seems like it would be too hard to factor in much stuff manually so if the proggy were reading a hand history it could track things, but if doing it by hand, maybe a single table image number? The program could evaluate the impact of a push by assuming your image number goes down by some margin with every push and so tries to calculate the future $EV impact of this change? If you have a high table image number, impact isn't so big, but if your table image number is low, the change is greater. (Like if I push once there isn't much change (say 1 point), but each additional time a push is a large and larger change (like 2 points for the next push and 4 point for the one after that.) I think we're pretty much into wild ass guess territory at this point, though.
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