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Old 09-08-2005, 01:19 PM
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Default Re: ICM/SNGPT rambling thoughts(long)

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Raptor is right that playing a certain hand right culminates in getting right the calling ranges of your opponents. But he is only almost there. You have to factor in what your decision will mean to the future calling ranges and how this will affect your EV on your future weighted average decisions. If opponents loosen up, your average EV will very often go down which means that if you stay with the threshhold you will have less situations where you can push for profit.

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Excellent, excellent summation and something that is very difficult to model, but would be an excellent addition to the current state-of-the-art ICM model (which includes more than just ICM, but all the extra stuff that eastbay has packed into SnGPT) if we could come up with something reasonable.

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This may be the best point to come from this discussion. It's not where my brain was headed when I started but I like this idea.

Key factors in an ICM calculation are the size of the blinds
and your FE vs. villian's range. Large +$EV situations almost always involve large blinds. Most pushes involve the same 1 or 2 villians on your left.

So, you've pushed from SB into BB the last two orbits. Here you are again with a marginal(+.6%) push against his current range with 100-200 blinds. If you have a workable stacksize and you feel that pushing this hand will open villian's range drastically on future hands, can you argue that the lost FE in the future higher blinds out weighs the current slightly positive situation?

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Yes, but again, the effect is very small.
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