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Old 09-08-2005, 09:17 AM
SlantNGo SlantNGo is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 133
Default Re: 2 straight draws for your viewing pleasure...

Hand 1: When the action comes to you, the pot size is ~6.5 BB (dropping 0.25 BB to simulate rake and simplify calculations). The CO raising here likely indicates he hit an Ace or hit Aces up. Hence, he is unlikely to jam the river for multiple bets. On the river, you're in a position to either bet out and collect 1 bet from each of them, or C/R and collect 1 and 1 from CO. Hence, I estimate the expected pot size to be 8.5 BB. Even though you're not drawing to the nuts on the high end of the straight, the action shown by the players makes me believe that a Q is a minimal threat, so we'll leave your total outs at 8. Using DIPO:

8 outs * 8.5 BB pot - (46 - 8) non-outs * 2 BB to call = -8

Fold.

Hand 2: How you count your outs is the key to this hand. I'll discount the two remaining 8s to 1 out for the chance that you hit trips but are against a made flush or straight. I'll give you 3 outs for the remaining 7s. I think the 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is worth maybe a quarter of an out here. However, for the Queens, I'll give you 3.5 outs, because if the Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is on board, you have the second nut flush. Hence, we have 7.5 outs. Assuming SB checks to you on the river, you make 1 BB. If he bets, you have the opportunity to make 2. Depending on your read of him, you may have a better approximation, but I'm going to say that we'll make on average 1.25 BB on the river when we're ahead. However, I'm going to use 1 to simplify the calculation to simulate an in-game decision. Again, using DIPO:

7.5 outs * 5.5 BB - (46 - 7.5) non-outs * 1 BB = 2.75

Call.
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