Re: AA on an interesting board (3/6)
Well, let's see. A flush really isn't especially likely, unless Button is 3-betting hands that are much worse than K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] are all accounted for elsewhere).
I'm thinking the river card didn't change things all that drastically. We're still worried about JJ/TT (and maybe A7, a little), and we're hoping for KK/QQ or an overplayed AJ or JT-type hand.
If Button does have K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or some other flush, though, there's a good chance he'll check behind. It's also possible he'll do that with a hand like Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] that picked up a flush draw on the turn to go with an overpair. So I hesitate to checkraise, partly for that reason and partly because I don't want to get 3-bet by a better boat.
I don't know. Donk the river, maybe? If Button raises again, though, and UTG now gets scared and goes away, then that's not so good.
I think I'm going to go with a river lead all the same. But I could be convinced another plan is better.
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