[Il_Mostro]

Allow me to speculate a bit..
Firstly, the ceiling is not known, and I would belive it is dependant on how large the reserve is, the larger the reserve, the faster you can pump it out without damaging the field. And reserves are not known, some argue 2 GB ultimately recoverable, some 8.
So much of the argument is that we cannot know( and therefore we should assume we are not near the ceiling).

The fact that the crisis is coming, in terms of higher prices, isn't really anything to doubt. But the timing of it is very much in dispute. But my belif is that whenever it comes, be it now or in 20 years, we will still be fundamentally unable to cope with it, since as long as oil keeps flowing it will be the cheapest liquid fuel source there is, thereby inhibiting any real effort to change. And when we really starts to see demand oustripping supply (I know, this is something an economist will cringe when reading) we will see higher prices, and relatively fast rising.