Re: Oil, again
A few points
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Crude oil reserves, at the end of last year, stood at the equivalent of approximately 40 more years of production, if production remains at 2004 levels. You get that figure by dividing the total known 2004 reserves of crude oil by the 2004 production - which is 1,200 billion of barrels divided by 80.2 million barrels.
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The problem with this number, be it 40 years or 80 years is that it's pointless. You can't produce at full speed until the well is dry. We will have oil for a lot more than 40 years, just a bit less every year (starting at some unknown year).
It's also somewhat intellectually dishonest to report numbers quoting "todays production" when demand is growing (not directed at you, Cy, more a general comment).
As for the argument on why not more refinerys is built, there are other explanations possible, more or less likely. But let's stick to yours. The thing I don't get, maybe someone can explain it to me, is that if we will have demand growing even more the coming years, as seems to be the forecasts, then why belive prices will come down? If we add demand but don't add supply, well, hardly a recepie for falling prices.
And if we belive in reduced demand, well, then we are thinking we'll see demand destruction, aka recession, right?
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