And the answer is...
This post can be answered with very little math. The answer is call, and the correct logic, pointed out by a few different posters, is that if calling the turn and folding unimproved is profitable, than calling the turn and then making a profitable river call is ever more profitable.
Almost half the field got this wrong though, and I believe this is due to a misunderstanding of reverse implied odds. Don't feel bad, I've seen this concept applied incorrectly by poker authors too!
The misconception is that when you have to call 2 bets to see a showdown, you have to adjust your odds lower. It turns out that this is very simplistic logic and is often wrong, as shown in the example. Here's a better description:
If you have a draw that you think will be good enough to win should you complete it, your odds of improving are the maximum odds you need to justify a call. You will never need more money in the pot than this amount. If you have a hand that is worth a river call as well, you adjust your draw odds down. The profit from the river call means you need less money in the pot to make the call correct. The more profitable your river call (ie, the more closer it is to a call down on for it's own sake), the lower the odds you should demand to justify your draw.
Reverse implied odds rarely apply, and even then it's often just a marginal mistake to call. Reverse implied odds apply only when your draw, if you are behind, is slim or non-existent, and the only way you win is if you call down unimproved and win. In this case, you must pay attention to the fact that a pure calldown costs 2 bets, not 1. If your draw even comes close to being worth a call and you have showdown value, you probably have a call.
An example where the river bet might turn a turn call into a fold is something like holding a pocket pair against an overcard on the board. If you are behind, you need 22:1 to continue. You probably aren't even close to calling based on your draw. So the question is, can you call 2 with the hand you have now, unimproved? Sometimes you could call 1 but not 2. That is reverse implied odds in action.
The reverse implied odds concept has been explained very poorly in the past. Hopefully this will help clear things up and save you some money. If you are really folding hands like this... stop!
Good luck.
Eric
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