[ZeroPointMachine]

Some random thoughts on ICM, +$EV situations and eastbay’s analyzer.

I think there is quite a bit of confusion and misunderstanding regarding ICM and its use in analyzing SNG situations. This is not meant as a criticism of the model or eastbay’s excellent program. However, people seem to forget that it is a model. It is a method of simplifying a complex situation in order to draw some useful conclusions. It is not the magic infallible push-o-meter that some people seem to believe it is.

There are posts everyday to the effect of “if it’s +$EV you must push”. There are several flaws in this thinking.

#1 Eastbay has arbitrarily set +.5% $EV and <10 BB as a “comfort level” to push. These are best guesses to cover the widest range of situations. But they are not perfect mathematical calculations.

#2 Each push/fold decision in a SNG is not a series of independent trials. You are not paid for each result. This is different from a +EV blackjack play or even a +EV play in a ring game. A +$EV push is part of a series of decisions and often carries a significant risk of ruin.

Let me try to illustrate this with an example:

I offer you a dice game. You pay $10 to play. On a roll of 1-5 you win $3. On a roll of six you lose. Good bet? But you have to roll the dice 15 times before you can collect and if you roll a six you lose all your winnings and your $10 entry. Still a good bet? How many required rolls would make this a good game for you? Or if you have to roll the dice 15 times how high does the +EV on each roll have to be to make it a good game?

I just pulled these numbers out of the air. But, I think they illustrate the point.

How many +0.5% $EV pushes can you make a game before the risk of ruin becomes insurmountable?

Can the games be beaten by pushing every time the push-o-meter says +0.5%EV?
At the 10-30 level absolutely (and beaten pretty hard). But the ROI will not be optimal. Multi tabling can offset the difference and this may be the best way to play with 8 or more tables.(I’ve never played more than 4)
I can’t speak for the higher levels.

I guess my point is that pushing a -$EV situation is always bad. However, folding a +$EV push is not necessarily bad.

I think the system could possibly be refined. One way to do this is to adjust the +0.5% EV cutoff based on stack size. Maybe the number should be different if the move carries no risk of ruin (you can’t be knocked out or crippled) versus when it does. I think many of the top players make these adjustments on the fly. They know that they don’t need to make a particular play even if it is +$EV. They know that 8-9 BB is different from 4-5BB and make adjustments.

I’m not an expert on any of this and I maybe a complete moron. I did not intend to speak for eastbay’s thought processes as many of them are probably over my head. I just felt this was a topic that could use some discussion.

I’m going to lunch now. You have an hour to flame away.