[Dagger78]

Here's the fixed numbers.

Let's assume again villian is bluffing 10% of the time, we'll win if we improve to 2 pair, we'll raise the river and he'll call if he's not bluffing, and we're getting 6- currently from the pot.

Let's run the hand 800 times.

We improve to the best hand 100 times and raise
90 of those times he calls the raise and we win 11BBs at the cost of 3BB (the call on the turn and the river raise)
10 of those times we raise, he folds and we win 10BBs, ne didn't call, at the cost of 3BB

Of the remaining 700 times he's bluffing 70 times and we win 9BB at the cost of 2BB.

The remaining 630 times he wins and costs us 2BB.

Net win 1780 bets
Cost to call down 1600 bets
Total net win 180 BB, or +.225BB per hand.

These number include exactly how many bets went into the pot, including our bets and raises, and then how many bets came back into our stack. I did this just for simplicity.

Would someone please correct me if my math is wrong?