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Old 09-07-2005, 05:04 AM
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Default Re: What should I expect from my bankroll growth ?

I appreciate the feedback and encouragement - you guys are awesome! I am only sorry I didn't spend more time here last summer when I first found this site...

There is so much to respond to here that I am sure I will miss some things but I will do what I can.

- Firstly let me say that when I said I have taken to not betting top pair, I did not say top kicker, and I DID say "on occasion" - meaning I use my judgement, firstly based on how much (read 'how little') is in the pot, secondly, based on who else is in the hand, thirdly, if I am holding a hand in the BB, for example, with which I would never have voluntarily entered the pot in the first place, I am willing to let it go without betting at a possibly dangerous flop against 6 opponents who all limped.

An example might be if I am holding Js 3c in the BB, and I end up seeing the flop in an unraised pot, with 6 limpers and the flop comes Jd 10h 9h. Are you going to try to convince me that my betting here a great idea? I see my leading off with a bet here as a mistake. I doubt there is anything out there that can convince me that my making a lead bet here would be a good idea.

- I am not playing with scared money - I won my initial BR in a freeroll and got it up to over $100 from that initial $10 win (actually 2 freerolls in which I won $5 each, and I used the $10 to play SNGs which I won, so I turned the $10 into $113 in less than a week) - I have already cashed out half of it, and if I lose what I have left, I still made money for nothing.

- Yes, Pacific has a rake on even the smallest pots...
$0.01 for every $0.20

- I signed up for the instant bankroll - that sounds aweseome - thanks for that! (assuming I get accepted)

- On the up side, I got a check in the mail today for a bit of cash so I will be able to pick up SSHE and maybe another book, although none of my local bookstores carries any of the 2+2 books [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

- When playing against players this bad, you have to catch good cards to win. It is that simple. These people call 4 bets preflop with Q2o and the worst part is they end up winning with those hands because the flop comes Q62 and I can't believe anyone is dumb enough to call 4 bets PF with two of those (esp while I am holding AQs) - but it happens, often... Yes, I understand that it is from players like that that I will make the most money in the _long_ term because they will lose more often making mistakes like that, but in the _short_ term, it stings and makes me cringe... And then I come here and explain why I sometimes don't want to bet into a scary flop based on a judgement call, and you guys tell me I am wrong, even though it is that very thing that is my one huge leak - I spew chips being aggressive just like you guys say I should be, losing most times to crap hands, winning a lot less than I 'should' be (like above when I hold AQ and villain holds Q2), and it makes me make more judgement calls that way - but isn't making those kinds of decisions part of good poker? Knowing when to lay down is a good thing - the best players sometimes lay down the best hand - it happens, because it is sometimes the right thing to do.

For that matter, at these levels, MOST players are clueless and wouldn't even know how to trap - some bet hyper aggressively with draws, yes, but most actually ONLY bet when they have something, and if they only _call_ a bet on the flop, then _lead_ out with a bet on the turn, it is usually (almost always) because they have made their hand at that point. They aren't wise enough to slow play, or check raise, or value bet (except a few who raised preflop and decide the right thing to do is bet bet bet to the river with nothing because they raised preflop - but those players, at this limit, win next to nothing because most people fold to their aggression, and I see them lose a lot more than they win).

- Not betting into a pot when you _may_ have the best hand is only a small mistake, but in certain circumstances, it _is_ the right thing to do, and at worst, it is only a small mistake, whereas spewing 8BB into a pot that was only 2BB to begin with, all because some people in a forum told me that I have to maximize my edge when I can, well, you can see where I am going with this. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

It might be easier for you to understand if you can see that I am not _positive_ in those circumstances if I have the edge, and if I am not sure, I would rather fold and risk losing the 2BB I have already put in the pot than risk the next 8BB I will have to call on the turn and river, for the risk of winning the same. Also, those kinds of circumstances are somewhat rare, so as Ed Miller would say, this is a small mistake, at worst, in my opinion.

Besides, putting money in the pot when you should fold is ALSO a mistake, but it is easier to control if one is observant enough and can use the correct judgement on when to make that decision, right?

- FYI, when I was talking about playing SNGs to increase my BR, I was talking about playing multiple $1.50 ones (like I did when I first started with the $5 wins to get this far), not one $10 one.

- I wasted the $10 at Royal Vegas when I first started playing last year.

- I also had deposited $50 at Poker Stars last summer (when I first started playing hold em) and made $50 a day the first two days - then I blew it all playing out of my limit - but, yes, I was playing and doubling my bankroll daily with very little experience - I just had a feel for the game. I appreciate more knowledge, but that extra knowledge has also given me artificial limits and I still don't know enough that it is a bad thing, in a way - a little knowledge is dangerous...

- I don't have the ability to look at a flop and instantly count how many outs will give me a definite winner, in a number sense, but I can tell by looking at it and the size of the pot and the number of people in the pot (and whether it was raised preflop, etc) whether or not I want to get involved, ie what are my chances of winning this particular hand.

That is how I play - I am learning other skills, like trying to work that statistical edge, but since I really don't understand it well enough, there isn't much point, _yet_.

I understand the concept of pot odds, etc, but it doesn't help if I can't instantly apply it - I know that will come in time, and when I get more books under my belt - for now I am satisfied with looking at the size of the pot and calling it based on that (and my outs or whether I have the best hand/draw).

Confusing enough?
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