Re: Bad Time to Peel One Off?
Getting 8.5 to 1, I think this is pretty damn neutral or maybe very slightly +EV.
I think you have to consider that your two pair/trips outs are dirty. Like 3.5-ish outs total. Plus 1.5 for the BDFD.
So we have (5 outs)/(47 cards left) which is very, very slightly higher than 1/9.5 which represents our odds.
It's pretty much a push. Maybe lean toward calling. We'll hit here sometimes and lose, and may need to call one more when we pick up draws, but I don't think these totally outweigh further implied odds.
So I think it's a very, very thin call, probably.
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