[krishanleong]

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Bet. Fold to a raise and check/fold river if he calls.

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I never use this line. I don't really understand it. Are we betting because we hope he will fold? Do we hope he is on a draw and won't bet a busted draw on the river? It seems to be used when we are up against an unfavorable range. Can you talk about it a bit more?

Krishan

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Yes, I would definitely be looking for a fold with a bet. As I see it the only hands he can have here are a pair of A's, a pair of K's, a gutshot with JT/QJ/QT, and also maybe a 5 with 65s/75s (not sure if he would iso raise with those). Oh and 55. I haven't run twodimes or anything, but my feeling is against those hands we are in good enough shape that we shouldn't simply check/fold (since we'll often be giving him free draws to up to 7 outs, and he may semibluff sometimes).

Check/calling also seems troublesome because we are still giving the free draws, and when he does bet it means we are drawing to 2 outs a very large percentage of the time.

That leaves betting. Betting will make him fold his gutshots and also put him in a difficult situation with his K's. I'm not sure if MD specifically would fold a K here but I know many tags would occasionally, especially a weaker one like K6s. Betting will also let us see a river most of the time as it is not very likely that he has better than one pair here so we will hardly ever face a raise. So we still get a shot at our two outer.

Of course if he calls a turn bet we are beat nearly 100% of the time, if not more, so there is no reason to put more money in barring improvement.

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Thanks very much. It makes sense now.

Krishan