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Could one of you advocating the check/call, check/fold line explain it to me? Won't he just check his draws and bet when he's ahead on the turn? And if he's aggro enough to bluff the turn with gutshots won't he sometimes bet the river too when he misses? I must be missing something.

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He is very, very unlikely to bet the river with a hand that jason_t is behind. He just won't do it with small pocket pairs or missed draws, IMO (there are some he will and this is what causes our problem of folding, but we have to).

As for the turn, we want him to continue to bluff or bet worse hands and we really don't want to get raised here, as we have showdown value against Michael Davis' range (that he won't bet on both the turn and river).

It's a very tricky situation, but it comes up fairly often at the $10/20 for me. We really want to get to showdown and this is the best way to do it.

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Yeah, my reasoning was similar, see my posts below. The reason why I didn't recommend folding the river is it seems a little bit like navigating of an obstacle course. If you think the probability of being ahead drops off at the river, fine. This is just one hand so I felt like we had to make a binary decision. In reality, I'd call some % of the time and make it into an optimal bluffing frequency thing.