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Old 09-06-2005, 06:13 AM
J_B J_B is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: The penguin will smack you!
Posts: 310
Default Re: Regarding Jek\'s/BW\'s break-even points for BBJ (long)

By $1, there should be a certain # where at all levels the $0.50 to win is +EV. Of course based on amount you'd get for winning, table share, etc. This # comes from chance of hitting vs. the amount you win. This has nothing to do with the stakes of the gamne or your win rate at the game.

ie: JP will be hit every X number of hands therefore # of hands * $0.50 = amount jp needs to be to be +EV.

The math of this is simlar to http://www.math.sfu.ca/~alspach/comp29/

Or this one: http://www.math.sfu.ca/~alspach/comp46.pdf

Now of course there is the rare instance where someone folds the 1 hand that would have made it. But, just the strait odds would probably be enough to answer question #1.

So, all this leads me to:

If we assume his math to be accurate:

We have a 1 in 155 000 chance of hitting it.

So, 155000 * $0.50 = $77500 for a $0.50 jackpot chance to be an even chance.
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