[Jman28]

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1. Folding will result in you loosing .5BB. In scenario 2, there is a 55% chance you win 3BB and a 45% you lose 6BB (assuming you always fold to his raise). That is .55*3 - .45*6 = -1.05BB, that's .55BB worse than folding pre flop.

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Correct. And just a minute late to be the big winner.

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2. Here c-betting is profitable if the hand ended on the flop. The question is whether it is more profitable to check. If you are ahead, you are giving a free card to a 3-many outer, that's bad. If you are behind, an A or K may give you the better hand, your may not. Also, there are redraw issues. I just finished my last S&G for the night, and am grabbin a beer so I am not going to do the math. (And the math is much more of a pain than in the frist case, but that has NOTHING to do with my not wanting to do it, nothing at all, nope, nada damn thing...)

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Good work again. You don't have to go into the math. I think actually the math is impossible without knowing a whole lot more about your opponent. Anyways, I didn't want this to become a huge math project, just a simple conceptual one.

You got the main point I was getting at here, which was that just because a bet wins you the pot over half the time doesn't mean you should make it. You still usually have plenty of pot equity if you check behind.

There are always more factors in a hand than you realize.

More thoughts?