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Old 09-05-2005, 11:28 PM
gumpzilla gumpzilla is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2005
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Default Re: Two Semi-Common Logical Fallicies: Continuation Bets

In the first case, the flop bet itself may be profitable on average while the whole sequence - raise PF followed by flop bet - loses chips, and so you can't break it up if the play really consists of both parts. To see this quickly, now assume that the flop bet is breakeven in terms of EV. You're losing the 2.5 BBs you put in above your SB as well in this situation, so it isn't very good. You need the BB to fold quite often if you're making a bet that large; however, you can probably scale down the bet without scaling down the frequency of how often he folds, and then this move gets more profitable.

I'll look at case 2 later.
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