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Old 09-05-2005, 05:33 PM
ajmargarine ajmargarine is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Pwning Robby Gordon
Posts: 798
Default Re: A gutshot and flush draw on the turn

Fold preflop. Twice.

And then fold after the flop. You have a gutshot straight draw right there. 4 outs. You are ~10:1 to hit that card on the turn. Implied odds say that to call $2 there you need to make $20 on that call to make it a break even EV (more to make it +EV). There's $6.75 in the pot and UTG has ~$7 left behind, so no way you can you call that as you will never make enough to make it worth your while. Calling with gutshots is almost always -EV.

As played, you caught a heart on the turn. Now you have 9 flush outs and 3 2's for a total of 12 outs to improve your hand. You are about 3:1 to make your hand which will probably be the winner. That $5 needs to make you over $15 to make it a profitable call. Given that UTG has about $2 left behind and the pot is $13.75, it is extremely marginal to make that call there also.
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