[ReDeYES88]

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i think youll see a flop about 1/4 of the time - sometimes for 100, sometimes for 200

[/ QUOTE ] ...or maybe less

...and your odds of hitting a set when you do get to see a flop are what? About 11%? So you want a 25% chance at making an 8.28:1 bet? Do you know how many chips would have to be available for this bet to be correct?

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King,

After posting this I went and had some lunch, so I had a chance to think about the hand further. My answer above was specifically directed towards your suggestion to limp and the resulting odds of hitting a set, but a better discussion would probably be on the dynamics of the game at this point in time.

We are in a game situation where the blinds are rising to the point where the stealfest begins, and we are in a bit of a sticky situation. The two big stacks (we will assume for this discussion that they are reasonable $33 big stacks) are to our right, and not only would it be expected that they would pound on our blinds, but all of their preflop steals when we are NOT in a blind will be coming through us, potentially decreasing our chance of being first in preflop with a raise.

Secondly, our fold equity (and we need fold equity at this point in the game) is pretty low to non-existant over the players to our left. We have four stacks with less than 6x the BB, and their calling ranges are going to open up wide, meaning that we will want a decent hand when we run with them, perhaps something a little better than a typical stealing hand.

Third, if we make the limp as you suggested and 75% of the time we have to fold based on your criteria of mucking to more than a minraise, then we are in the BB next hand. Once again there are four stacks out there <6x BB and starting to feel the heat. It is reasonable that one of them is going to push with 22+, Ax+, KT+, QT+. We will need to be holding a hand in the top 12% or so (33+, A8+) to make a call even marginally +EV if a t600 stack pushes (assuming that the stacks are identical to the way they stand now, for simplicity in calculating).

We are going to need those chips, and tossing away t100 or t200 preflop chasing a set followed by losing another t100 or t150 after the blinds pass (assuming, for the stake of discussion, that we didn't have the chance to gain chips while in the blinds) sure doesn't leave us in the best of positions to weather the big stacks to our right.

We really need to be frugal with our chips here, and limping is probably the worst of our three or four options.