[Bozeman]

"Expected chip count if you fold = 20000*.6 = 12000

Expected chip count if you call = 15000*p + 5000*(1-p) = 10000p + 5000 = 12000
=>10000p = 7000 => p = .7"

If you include a correction for your better than average play in the first case, you need to also include it in the second.

If 10K is worth 12K to you, then 5K should be worth 6K and 15K should be worth 18K (contingent on the fact that you are not amazingly good with either a small stack or a big stack), so I think the second equation should be 18000p+6000(1-p)=12000 => p=50%. The reason is that that now there is no element of "You lose you are out".

There might also be slight extra value for the big stack because it makes you harder to bust. If it is worth 19K to you, then you can call as a slight dog (46.1%).

Thanks for clarifying my thoughts,
Craig

PS I think this is the proper correction in the style of Copernicus. And it falls between his extremes. Also, everything is contingent on it being far from the money, otherwise there is a smaller value for the larger stacks.