View Single Post
  #9  
Old 09-05-2005, 04:13 AM
MTBlue MTBlue is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 91
Default Re: Overpair JJ facing aggression

When I played low stakes holdem and I was one of those guys and I made money b/c people make more dumb mistakes at these limits then always calling with overpairs. Sure you get stacked occasionally but unless this guy is a huge vagina post flop you are well ahead of his hand range (i.e. suited/ connecting/ big/ pairs cards). Assuming AA and KK reraise preflop (likely give his numbers) That leaves 6 combinations of QQ, 9 combinations of sets, 9 combinations of 45 two pair and probably T5s and T4s (4 combinations). 28 ways you are beat. Now look at the hands you beat (99-22 excluding 55 and 44) for 36 combinations and a pair of tens (106s 107o- At0) 73 combinations. He only has to be donking some of these hands 1/4 of the time to make this call profitable(107 combinations to 28 combinations). This analysis leaves out all of the coinflip hands and doesn't look at win percentages versus the hand ranges but you get the idea. It's just too likely he is messing up one of the gazillion hands he is playing then he woke up with a monster.
Reply With Quote