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Old 09-04-2005, 11:59 AM
TomBrooks TomBrooks is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: .5/1 Full Hand
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Default Re: Warning: Do not view hand on an empty stomach.

At first blush this looks like a good fold against a normal, reasonable player. It sure looks like he has JJ or QQ for the made set or KK for the overpair which makes a set on the river. However, there is one other reasonable holding...A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. An aggressive player who was running hot and feeling lucky might three-bet the Turn with those 12 outs to the nuts plus 6 outs to TPTK.

Calling for one more bet seems warrented in the event he has that A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], plus you get to look him up. The odds are great at 14:1.

Edit: After reading the thread, I agree Villian may also have had AA (although statistically small chance since you had two As) and A:hearts: Q:hearts is somewhat possible.

I wouldn't say this is a terrible fold as I'd guess your beat 80-90% of the time. But I'd say your probably good close enough to 1 in 14 times to make calling somewhat +EV plus the value of looking him up is worth something.
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