Re: Don\'t know what David\'s advice is....
Actually, I said the "top pros" would gauge their chance to reach the first double-up at much greater than 60% in a typical tournament they enter. Of course, it's all relative, no matter who you are. I'm sure most 2+2'ers have entered tournaments where they had greater than 60% chance to reach that first doubleup, and other, tougher tourneys where it might have been less than 60%. This problem is a good illustration of how your strategy changes depending on how good you are relative to the rest of the field. The less skill advantage you have, the more you roll the dice. But given the parameters of the problem, the answer is always B.
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