I meant that. This hand will make you vomit. Don't say I didn't warn you.
I have only 30 hands on the guy and he's statistically a LAG, but in thta time he's won twice with AKo and once with KQo so he's probably more running hot than truly laggy. He's aggro postflop, but again the cards are running over him so it's hard to make a judgement.
PokerStars 0.50/1.00 Hold'em (10 handed)
converter
Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $0.50.
<font color="#666666">
1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">
3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, CO (poster) calls, <font color="#666666">
3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 caps</font>, Hero calls, CO calls.
Flop: (13.50 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO folds, UTG+1 calls.
Turn: (8.75 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.
River: (14.75 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, Hero folds.
Final Pot: 15.75 BB
You can throw up now. Pax paid me to say that he was infuriated by this; hell I was so pissed at myself I left the table immideately afterwards convinced that I was tilting.
Three hours of brooding over it, however, is starting to push it towards at best an EV-neutral situation. The guy capped preflop, and at least on Stars that generally means strictly AA-JJ or AK. AK is unlikely since there's no reason for him to raise the turn. If I can actually narrow him down to strictly AA-JJ then, suprisingly enough,
I can't call: My only hope is to split, so after the 15BB rake I'm looking at 10:1 odds of getting money, while the pot odds are only about 1:7.6.
And yet my stomach is still heaving: I know this is a bad fold. So what's making up the difference? Would you expect to see AQs often enough here? I hardly ever see a capped AQs here (and the villain didn't cap with AKo earlier FWIW), so it would be awfully surprising to see; AJs even moreso. What am I missing here? Why is this a call?