[7stud]

Leonardo,

I like your analysis and your confidience, however as you must know, if the player folds, it is most likely that not a single one of the ensuing hands will ever be equal to a 60% coin flip. The player will have to play the future hands according to whether they are +EV or not--not wait and play only those hands where he has a 60% chance of winning the hand. Hands he plays will sometimes have a 30% chance of winning if the pot odds are right, and some other hands may have a 65% chance of winning. The good player will be able to extract some extra value for each hand he does play. If the player waited and only played those hands where he had a 60% chance of winning, his stack would get blinded away, and the tourney would end with him maybe never even having played a single hand.

In the end, having a 60% chance of getting to 20k is not the same thing as having a 60% chance of winning every hand, so the player cannot fold and then get many 60% coin flips instead.