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Old 09-03-2005, 02:40 AM
W. Deranged W. Deranged is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 96
Default Re: KQo - Who\'s raising the river?

I's don't be findin' a raise her...

On the turn our villain could have:

-A set (3 x set threes, fours, sixes; one very unlikely set Ks; 9-10 total)
-Two pair (18 versions of Ks up; 27 other kinds of two pairs)
-A straight (16 versions of 75 and 16 versions of 52)
-Other draws, pair + draw hands, etc... let's say we weight this at like 14 hands for normal players).

Of the ~100 (neat how I did that, ehh...) we are now beating like 59 of them...

BUT... which of these will call a river raise? Not all the draws! So now we are behind the 32 straights and the 10ish sets, and some number of pairish hands... It's close regardless but I don't think we get there.

EDIT: particularly considering we're probably not folding to a three-bet and so we're risking more than 1 bet to win 1.
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