Re: WOHEP: Backdoor flush outs estimates
OMG, this is so simple to find, I don't get what you ppl are writting about. Just run all possible combinationas and find the EV, here is my crude and straightfoward method.
odds of hitting the cards we need on the turn is 10/47, river is 9/46
so to get through all the possible cases, i'm going to run it 2162 times
so first, u'll lose -2162 on the flop to see the turn card,
next, on the turn, 460 times u'll get your four flush draw. so u'll have to pay to see it, so -2*460
now, for u'r pay off, it will be final pot times 90. cause u'll hit 90/460 times.
so u hae FinalPot*90 = 2162 + 2*460 for 0EV
Final Pot = 34.24
so working backward, -2(him) for his call on the river, -2(you) -2(him) for the turn, -1(you) -1(him) for the flop bet, u'r left with 26.24
so pot needs to be 26.24 on the flop. with the pot odd on the flop, u can easily figure out the number of outs it equals.. add 1 for his bet, and u get the pot odd you need.
which is 27.24
so u need to get 27.24:1, so that is 1/27.24 * 47 = 1.73 outs. (out/47* pot = 1 ...out = 1/pot *47 )
Q.E.D.
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