I agree
My initial instinct is to agree with E here, though I admit that part of my reason is the mere fact that you asked the question. If you call all-in with a 60% chance of winning, it's true that you'll have the same odds of doubling up as if you played normally. The problem here, I think, is that you have a 40% chance of going broke instantly (assuming you call with exactly a 60% chance of winning). If you play normally, I doubt your chances if busting out will be that high. You stated merely that your chances of reaching 20k were 60%, which is much, MUCH different than saying that your chances of busting out were 40%, as they would be if you called. This is one of those situations where you have a fairly high risk for a reward that you can get just as well by playing good, conservative poker (which means lower risk).
There may be something more important here though. You stated that your chances of doubling to 20k were 60% playing normally. If you win this hand, what will be your chances of doubling again to 40k? If you feel it is still 60%, I may change my opinion. I just started on a new level of tournament play, so I'm interested in other thoughts on this one.
~Magic Man
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