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Old 09-02-2005, 09:48 AM
ChrisW ChrisW is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 21
Default Re: Brunson Question.

IMO the posters so far have missed the point: a play which in itself is -EV can be an integral part of a strategy which is +EV.

This OE+BD is about 42% against AK. Thus, pushing all-in against AK (assuming the push is not a colossal overbet) is a very small minus position considering the dead money in the pot. To illustrate, let's assume that each player started the hand with 100 BB. 76s raised to 4BB, only the big blind calls with AK. Pot is 9BB. The flop comes, the AK checks, 76s bets 6BB, AK checkraises to 15 BB. The pot is now 21BB (the AK's reraise has not yet been pulled into the pot). If 76s moves in, he will lose an additional 90BB 58% of the time and win 111BB 42% of the time. Therefore, the average loss for the push is 6BB, assuming that AK is 100% to call.

Of course, if the AK is calling against a draw 100% of the time, he's also calling when the initial raiser has a set. In those cases, the set is about 98% to win the pot, so the flop push gains 106BB in equity. Lose 6BB on the draws, win 106BB on the sets. Sounds like a good proposition to me. So, the reason to push with 76s in these cases is: you want AK to be willing to get all-in when it hits TPTK. The greater percentage of calls that you get in these situations, the more money you will make on your monster hands.

In reality, a decent opponent's best strategy is to lay down AK in these situations, expecting to be slightly ahead of a strong draw or way behind a set. That's fine too; now you capure pots with the worst hand when you have a draw.
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