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Old 09-02-2005, 02:11 AM
CourtesyFlush CourtesyFlush is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 272
Default Re: QQ and river overbet, $100NL

[ QUOTE ]
The check on the turn doesn't seem suspect. You raised so it seems typical to check it to you since you are the aggressor here. When you checked behind it may have seemed weak to him (it was weak). I think your check on the turn made for a tough decision here on the river. It is hard to say what he has here. He could have TT or JJ and legitimately think they're good...although if this was the case it seems like he ought to have made a value bet. Maybe he had AK and overplayed them on the flop and hit on the river? The river bet would still be big though... I think I would have bet the turn. What was your line when you checked the turn? Were you hoping to check it down from there? I would've bet something like $15 on the turn and folded to a good raise. If he called the turn I check call the river when the ace hits? I guess I just don't understand your check on the turn.

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To address the turn check, I did it for these reasons:

If I bet the turn and he semi bluff checkraises me with a draw, I fold the best hand.

If I bet and he calls and makes a decent sized bet on the river when he misses, I have to fold the best hand.

If he has a draw and misses, he will very likely make a reasonable bet on the river as a bluff and I will win those bets.

If he has top pair or middle pair, he won't be able to call a decent bet on the turn, but will likely call a value bet on the river.

Thats why I like a turn check. As for the river, like I said, I put the player on absolutely nothing, or something very strong. The only "nothing" he could have played here is 67s or JTs imo. If the flop was suited, I would have called the river. I thought it was much more likely that he was betting a set or A9/A8 that caught on the turn.

Of course, there is always the possibility that I am giving my opponent way too much credit and he made a bet that makes no sense with something like K9. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] Part of the reason I posted is to find out how often typical $100NL players make really out of line bets with mediocre made hands.
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