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Old 09-01-2005, 08:50 PM
Doylestown Doylestown is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 10
Default Live Borgata Hand - Analysis Please

I've been back and forth on this one for a while now. Played this tourney over a month ago at Borgata and would like to see the opinions of this forum. Let me give you the tourney info.

Daily tourney $175 + $25. Slightly less than 100 players enter. Final table (9) are paid - only the top 3 spots matter to me. When you reach the final 3 in one of these daily tourneys the blinds are enormous in relation to the stacks and the cards generally dictate the outcome if a chop isn't agreed upon, which they typically are. We began with $5000 in chips.

We are nearing the end of the 4th level (levels last 20 minutes) with $100/$200 blinds and $25 antes. In a few hands the blinds will be $200/$400 w/ $50 antes. Not alot of hands are seen per round of blinds.

I've been at my table for the entire tourney, over an hour now and have a very good feel for my opponents styles. The donks are for the most part already gone. We are down to 60+ players over 7 tables. My table is 10 handed. I have $7800 after posting the bb $200 ($8000 total).

Seats 3 and 5 limp - my feelings are that they are definitely not strong. It folds to the button, one of the better players at the table who has an aggressive style. He pushes all in for $6500, most likely sensing what I sensed from the 2 limpers. I have a great read on the button and am 90% certain that he is holding AQ. I place a 5% chance on AK and a 5% chance on AJ. Essentially they'll mean the same thing but I wanted to share with you how the hand played out in my head as it occurred. Please don't flame me here for the confidence I have in my read on my opponents. When I am fortunate enough to pick up a tell I have been incredibly accurate and until it proves otherwise I will believe in them. I place a 0% chance that he holds a pair of any kind. In fact if it is easier for any of you for the sake of this question just pretend he turns his cards face up and shows AQ.

The small blind folds and there is $7450 in the pot and I look down at pocket 10's. It costs me $6300 of my remaining $7800 to call. Call and lose and I'm virtually dead. Call and win and I'm one of the tourney chip leaders and will certainly have a big lead at my table which should afford me some nice liberties. What's my play?
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