Re: live 10/20 hand, pocket kings, 3 Aces on flop
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I would bet/raise all streets. He'll have an A only 2% of the time (maybe larger given he raised pf), but probably has a lower pair. If he wins 2% of the time, raising all streets averages 33 SB while calling all streets averages 23.5 SB.
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This is an extraordinarily myopic way to think about poker and probability and life.
Think. Conditional. Probability.
Do it.
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