[Alchemist]

As usual you make some good points, Buzz.

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Now you seem to be basically asking, "But what if that plan doesn't work?"

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Yep. Particularly at the lower limits (where I also currently reside), raises here often don't stop people from chasing, which also can make it harder to put them on hands.

I take SB's betting (especially into 5 people) to represent A3 with unknown high strength. I can't see him betting any high-oriented hand with 3 low cards and 2 suits on the board. And the more callers there are, the greater the likelyhood someone has A3. As a result, I have to think we're already beaten for low, leaving us at best 3 outs to make the nut low. Is it too premature to think we're drawing to half the pot here?

I agree raising is a good idea if you can get rid of competition and can make a big impact on your chances of winning at least half the pot, like if someone has something like KKxx or A567. Our hand needs a good bit of help to win the high side, IMO, and the best way to get that is to try and get rid of some opposition.

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Let's say SB re-raises and MP1 calls the double bet. I think Hero calls the re-raise but very possibly folds, depending, on the next betting round.

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Let's consider this scenario which I think is pretty likely. The turn comes a brick and SB bets and MP1 calls. I think this is a difficult decision here because we have no idea what MP1 has. He may also have A3 with a weak high hand and doesn't want to dump in money only to get quartered. Or he could have a straight wrap or 88xx or even picked up a heart draw, etc. It makes a big difference how strong his high prospects are.

So with one card remaining, we have the 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] to either scoop or get at least 2/3, and 9 more outs to give us either the nut low or a flush without pairing the board.

Now on the flop if it goes: SB bets, MP1 calls, we raise, MP3 folds, SB reraises, MP1 calls, we call. Pot = 9.5BB.

Turn: Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] SB bets, MP1 calls
Pot = 11.5BB

We're facing roughly 10 outs for half the pot out of 44 remaining cards, or 4.4:1. But now we're getting about 11:1 (-rake) so it should be a call here, correct? (My math/reasoning could be way off).