[ethan]

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It doesn't sound like you have much fold equity right now, so I'd call. I would expect BB to isolate you if you raise and you're probably not getting good odds against his range of hands. I don't know what you're referring to by your title, so maybe I'm oversimplifying....

JKratzer

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give me 25% equity against a hand that calls. how much folding equity do i need to make this +ev?

fim

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You're pushing 220. If they all fold you pick up 210 and end at $430. If you get called, you have 25% equity in a pot of 210 (the pot before it gets to you) + 220 (your remaining stack) + 190 (what it costs BB to call you). If we assume the pot's HU when you get called, you have 0.25 * 620 = $155 equity.

Let "c" be the % you're called.
If [c * $155 + (1 - c) * 430 - 220] > 0, it's +EV.
155c + 430 - 430c - 200 = 0 when c = 230/285 = 0.81, so you have to be called over 80% of the time for this to be -EV.

A calling range that gives you 25% equity would be AA-JJ, AKs. If you add in AKo then even if we give him AA-66, AKs, AKo your equity's 27%. As you remove over/dominating pairs it only goes up, so AA-JJ, AKs, AKo gives you around 30% equity.

If he's calling with AA-JJ, AKs, AKo then that has to be 86% of his range to make the original raise or you're going to show a profit. You need 32% equity if he's going to call 100% of the time. Again, this is assuming everyone else drops.

If someone else is going to look you up if BB folds, this play obviously goes way way down in EV, but you know that. If you've just bluffed off most of your stack I'd think someone might be inclined to call this "tilting" push, but you're going to have a better guess as to how likely that is.


edit - I have the pot size wrong. By "three calls to shorty who calls" do you mean three calls total? Not four? Otherwise there would have been four limpers to you pf instead of three the first time around. So, the pot's either $180 or $220 when it gets to you, not $210. Doesn't mean a huge change in what folding equity you need, but the $180 figure does raise it by a couple percent. It's still not huge.