Re: Thinking too hard or not hard enough... 5/10
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It doesn't sound like you have much fold equity right now, so I'd call. I would expect BB to isolate you if you raise and you're probably not getting good odds against his range of hands. I don't know what you're referring to by your title, so maybe I'm oversimplifying....
JKratzer
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give me 25% equity against a hand that calls. how much folding equity do i need to make this +ev?
fim
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There's $60 in the pot before his raise; $220 in the pot after your call. If you raise to $190 more and he isolates, that puts $600 even in the pot, so your EV is $150 after a call, given your 25% assumption. If you take the pot, your EV is 220+190 = $410
If you fold, you come out of it with $220 (I won't discuss calling because that's too complicated).
So, for this to be better than folding, you need 410* %F + 150*(1-%F) > 230.
That comes out to %F > 30.7%.
However, if his %F is 1% (the odds that he doesn't see that he's getting 2-1 with a huge hand or that he loses his connection), you're losing a good amount of money. Fold or call.
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