View Single Post
  #6  
Old 08-30-2005, 05:36 AM
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: Thinking too hard or not hard enough... 5/10

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It doesn't sound like you have much fold equity right now, so I'd call. I would expect BB to isolate you if you raise and you're probably not getting good odds against his range of hands. I don't know what you're referring to by your title, so maybe I'm oversimplifying....

JKratzer

[/ QUOTE ]

give me 25% equity against a hand that calls. how much folding equity do i need to make this +ev?

fim

[/ QUOTE ]

There's $60 in the pot before his raise; $220 in the pot after your call. If you raise to $190 more and he isolates, that puts $600 even in the pot, so your EV is $150 after a call, given your 25% assumption. If you take the pot, your EV is 220+190 = $410

If you fold, you come out of it with $220 (I won't discuss calling because that's too complicated).

So, for this to be better than folding, you need 410* %F + 150*(1-%F) > 230.

That comes out to %F > 30.7%.

However, if his %F is 1% (the odds that he doesn't see that he's getting 2-1 with a huge hand or that he loses his connection), you're losing a good amount of money. Fold or call.
Reply With Quote