Re: 50-100NL UB Hand
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For the call to be bad, I guess you're assuming his diamond outs are no good? He seemed to think they might be live.
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He did, from the bet sizes. I think it's a decent read, but in these scenarios we always think our flushes are outs, whether or not it is true. We want ourselves to have more outs and be able to call. In reality, a diamond might cause hero to go broke and is unlikely to get him paid; those are negative outs in my book.
Let's say hero's up against black AA. He's got 8 diamonds, 3 5s, 3 9s, and 2 8s to improve. 16 outs. So he's ~2:1 to improve. He's getting 2:1 to call, so a call can be no worse than EV-neutral if opponent has no diamond.
If opponent has a diamond, then 15 cards improve hero. 6/15 of those cards make hero broke.
At best, a very thin call, especially since opponent may not pay hero off if hero improves.
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