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Old 08-29-2005, 06:58 PM
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Default Re: Through the eyes of Villain - misplayed on every street?

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Clearly?! He's spoken up once and at an odd time at that.

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On the contrary. Like my post said, his lines look like a flush draw catching it on the river.

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Villain tells me lots of things...

He plays too many hands.
He doesn't believe that the board helps me.
He believes a scare card is an opportunity based upon position or fit.

Can't he be raising to try to price SB out of the pot or otherwise charge him for chasing as much as telling me that he can beat top pair better than I can?

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The fact that villain is loose with hands doesn't change the fact that he raised your bet on the turn with (again, like I said) a flop line that looks like a flush, and you're still holding top pair at best. Basically, for a board like this, I think you overplayed your hand and got saved by a river. I understand that you picked up the redraw on the turn, but I feel, at this point in time, that villain holds KQ or KJ[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Read my argument below.

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I'm not ignoring the fact that I could be behind. But in more than 50% of those cases, I'm redrawing to 11 clean outs. Add that to the number of times that I'm ahead against a better redraw (~30 outs) and I don't think the turn 3-bet is out of line.

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Less of a debate and more of a Q: where do you get "more than 50% of those cases" and the 11 outs from?

For some reason, the more I read this HH the more I feel villain played like he held KQ or KJ[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. This is, of course, before the J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] falls on the river. The line he takes with the flop is consistent with that, especially with the overs. On this turn, with his 3bet, I'm putting him on KJ[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Correct me if I'm wrong or sounding weak.

Btw, what blinds are we talking about here? If they're .5/1, I'm giving villain too much credit.

-AC
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