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Old 08-29-2005, 12:16 AM
trigeek08 trigeek08 is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7
Default Re: NL Home Tourney Hand

I agree that the flop push is the best play. If the prize structure has an effect on the play of the hand, it would be that you would be looking to take the pot down on the flop, by letting villain see the turn, you allow a hand like A2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] to pick up 8 extra outs on you. I will try to run the math on this to see if I am right, forgive me if it is off. I am obviously assuming that you will be called when you move in. I will also do the math with villain holding 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (giving villain over cards with a club draw only improves his chances of winning by .5%), and A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

Pushing Flop
8800*(.875)-4400*(.125)= T7150, when villain holds A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
8800*(.773)-4400*(.259)= T5381, when villain holds 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Pushing Turn
8800*(.773)-4400*(.227)= T5803 when villain holds A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
8800*(.227)-4400*(.773)= -T1403 when villain holds 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Hope this helps.
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