thesharpie, I think this fails to take the real dynamics of heads up into account. My thinking is that we have a large amount of chips if we fold, which is plenty to work with heads up. It's just not worth putting first place at risk on what is almost certainly a coin flip, and could be a 4 to 1 dog. I guess if you are not at all confident in your heads up lay it could be worth flipping a coin, but I am self-delusional enough that I'd rather fold here and keep getting into the pot first and feeling out my opponent for a place to make a move (or find AA [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]).