[ethan]

Some thoughts:
I have a huge amount of equity in this pot, and the money's deep enough I may be able to get a bunch of it in and force him to make an incorrect fold. Some flop aggression may also lower the chance in his mind I have a draw while still leaving a lot behind, meaning I have a better chance to stack him if I hit on the turn. I figure the K outs won't scare him off much, the 9 outs probably will unless he has QQ and wants me to freeroll him (or has KQ and pwns me). If I turn a spade after some flop aggression I'll probably get paid off, but I want to have enough money to see the river if I miss the turn.

If he has nothing and I bet, he probably folds. Not the end of the world, since if I check-call/raise the flop I don't get much more out of him anyways. So, now let's assume he has something from AA-88, KQ, JT, and the pair+gutshot/oesd hands (AJ, QJ, J9, 98 etc). Given how he played his first hand at the table I'm guessing he's not the sort to default to a pot raise with a strong hand. This might not be correct since that was a particularly non-scary flop, but I went with it. But if I bet and he has something good, I think he'll raise.

There aren't any noticeably larger stacks at the table, so I'm more concerned by the immediate EV of this hand than by any future EV a big stack might get me. But if some laggy fish was sitting to my right with 300BB and that'd change your thoughts on the hand, I'd appreciate input on that too.

Some pokerstove for the flop:
vs AA/KK, I'm 55%
vs QQ, 59%
vs J9/T9/89, 57%
vs QJ, 57%
vs 99, 45%
vs JT, 50% (J8/T8 are unlikely)
vs 9s7s, 41%
vs JJ/TT/88, 40%

And if by some miracle I get all in against KQ, I have 81% equity and a victory lap to run. Likewise for 67[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].