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i haven't read any literature/empirical work on BJ, and am actually looking to do so. have you got any to recommend?
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"Theory of blackjack" is the ultimate mathematical treatment of the game.
i have this feeling in the back of my head that because good blackjack play involves putting more money out when you believe yourself to be at an advantage, the swings aren't that terrible (though they clearly exist).
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This is really not true. The edges you are pushing in blackjack are very small. It's near impossible to put yourself in a position to have a large edge that is very common in even high stakes poker games. Another factor, is that even professional blackjack players consistently miscalculate or misunderstand their true edge. I dealer dealing 5 more cards (before shuffling) in a 2 deck game can pretty drastically change a counter's edge.
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1) playing perfect blackjack w.r.t. counting without varying your bets
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Varies depending on the rules. But note that counting without varying bets can never gain a significant edge. The best you could hope for is about +0.5%. Even to achieve this, you would need to use a counting strategy optimized for strategy adjustment (eg. the popular Hi-Lo method is not good enough, it's optimized to utilize betting variations).
Aside: It's possible to gain a 2% edge in a good game using a decent strategy while varying your bets AND playing strategy (both according to the count).
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2) playing basic strategy, no counting, with varying your bets on some reasonable spectrum
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There has never been found a betting strategy (without counting) that can gain an edge using just basic strategy plus betting variation.
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3) playing perfect counting strategy with varying your bets on some reasonable spectrum
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About 2% is the best you can hope for. Better edges used to be possible with advanced techniques such as dealer manipulation, dealer hand reading, etc but that is a whole complicated subject that is not really applicable to today's game (ie casino's caught on, and have taken safety measures).
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if anyone has any reference to that that'd be great.
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The following are very good. Also, search around
www.bj21.com.
Professional blackjack by wong
Theory of blackjack by griffin
World's greatest blackjack book by humble