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Old 08-27-2005, 01:59 AM
citanul citanul is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 64
Default Re: Question about SNGs and fluctuation

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I think:
d) i think that oh, some other randomly chosen metric, like his ROI, is much more likely to tell you his ROI than your randomly chosen one of "pull a number out of a hat"
citanul

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Im really confused. What does this mean. Are you saying OP made up 6%?

6% may not be "excellent" but it certainly seems good enough to me. earning 64k over 5k tournies should certainly be a comfort to someone who doesnt feel they are good enought to play at that level. Anyway it certainly beats 30% ROI at the 20s..

(good grief thats over 1 mil tourney dollars spent)

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my point was the 6% is way more likely to be his ROI than 15%, since one was his ROI over a large number of tournaments, and one was a number the OP said he thought was more likely his friend's ROI.

i think that players who have never played higher stakes games, even properly bankrolled, hell, even hugely bankrolled, say 100 buyins, underestimate the psychological effects on even a strong willed person that a 20-30 buyin drop will have on a player at high stakes. yes, i understand that when you multiply 5% x 215 x 5k, you get a large number, but you have to realize how that 5% happens. it doesn't happen by someoen hands you x bucks per tournament. it happens by you lose and you win and then it averages out. with a player hitting 5%, there's more a lot of losing in there, and particularly likely large downswings, even of the nice bleed kind that are just slow drips down in money for say, a week or a month at a time. it hurts. a lot.

say you drop 30 buyins in a week and you're a 5% player, what do you say to yourself in the morning of the next week? "it's ok, in only 600 games, i'll get that 30 buyins back"? (and that's pre rake!) i know this sounds really rambly and everything, but you have to think about these things, even when you have a lot RoR, you have to consider things beyond just ROI, like stress level involved per enjoyment.

this doesn't mean that someone who's rate is say 5% or 6% should just give up and quit, it means i think that someone in such a position needs to work on their game more, as while the money is nice in the long run, it'll drive you nuts. as another poster said, it'll make a sane man jump out windows. or, in my more preferred line, it'd make mother theresa homicidal, or yugo like women, or something like that.

citanul

ps: yeah, i was just noticing yesterday how totally insane it is that say, i who am young and never had a job that paid anything, AND didn't play that much so far this month, AND didn't play for huge stakes this month, can have spent >50k in tournament entries this month.
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