[sublime]

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Ok. I will simplify this as much as possible (why, i dont know, as the chances of you agreeing you are wrong are null)

When two teams of approximate skill* meet in a game, one will win 50% of the time, the other 50% if you play the game a large amount of times (say 162 for sake of argument)

Now with variance mixed in, one team will win 4 in a row or 4/7 quite a few times. (to further illustrate this point go flip a coin 100 times and record the results).

Now if you flip heads 10 times in a row, what would you call it? Clutch flipping ability? Or variance? (another term for variance is LUCK) Now, luck doesnt exist, it all evens out in the long run (say 162 trials, even that's too small). It doesnt even out over 7 games.

Look at the NYY and the Devil Rays this year. The Devil rays have a winning record, yet you would have to a complete moron to suggest they are a better team than the Yankees. If they played another 100 games against each other, the odds suggest the Yankees would have a winning record over them (by a VERY wide margin).

I am amazed that this is the premier gambling site on the internet yet simple mathematical issues like this make people look idiotic when trying to discuss them.

*Note: Two teams are rarely exactly 50/50 in terms on win expectancy. Just they are a lot closer in the playoffs than the regular season, thus LUCK (variance) playing such a large factor. If you put the Royals in a 7 games series against the White sox, luck will still exist but it wont be as big a factor due to the Sox being far superior in talent.

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As stated in my previous post, I understand the concept of variance -- in fact I've understood it too well lately, as it relates to poker. I'm having a hard time understanding how it relates to them in the regular season. They've played 124 games now -- if they're getting lucky all year, then by your explanation I can expect them to finish the year 4-34 and even out at .500? By your own description, you have to consider them the favorite in the AL at this point, don't you?

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Thye HAVE been lucky this year (thier record is better than thier runs scored/allowed would suggest) that doesnt mean they are not a good team, just been luckier than normal.

Nobody has said they are a .500 team playign that FAR over thier heads, they just have been on the right side of variance (unlike a team like the blue jays who have been on the negative side)