Re: River play (crossposted)
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I think we've got a small bit of fold equity against all pocket pairs and AK, and can expect to get called quite a few times with AQ or AJ, so this is a bet.
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How can you hope that the better hands in villain's range will fold but the worse hands will call? I disagree with those that voted to bet. You have a hand with some showdown value, but not enough that you are a favourite when called. Most good players would dump AQ or AJ on the turn, knowing they are dogs to your 3-betting range in this mid-sized pot. I expect villain to showdown a pocket pair smaller than queens and call your river bet every time.
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I agree with you that folding a better hand is a very slim possibility, but I think you underestimate both how often this guy will have and fold AK, and how often he'll have and call w/ AQ. (Though I think the chances of the former are greater than the chances of the latter.)
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