[Jack of Arcades]

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xFIP is ERA based on K-rate, BB-rate, and GB/FB ratio.

BABIP is the batting average on balls in play.

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how are either of those more than "ok" indicators of quality pitching? i can see how pitchers who give up more seeing eye grounders or bloops would have a high BABIP, but what if a pitcher with a high BABIP just gave up a lot of hard hits which are harder to field?

as for xfip, why should i think a pitcher is better than his ERA says if he strikes out a lot of people, walks very few, and has a good fb/gb ratio? assuming we're not talking about an insignificant sample.

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Because pitchers that give up a lot of hard hits don't get a significant sample to prove themselves.

A stat like xFIP is a better indicator of future ERA than actual ERA.